Where Influence Meets Accountability.
Accountability scores for Influencers, Politicians and Public Figures.
Loading predictions...
Meet The Top Performers
Frequently Asked Questions
Answer to most asked questions about luck and geniusA prediction is defined as any message or segment of content that directly or implicitly forecasts a future event, asset price change, or other measurable occurrence that has yet to happen. Trivial and immeasurable predictions are ignored.
Our advanced AI systems are used to distinguish between content and segments of content that contain predictions from those that don't. We analyze content for context, responses to previous statements and metadata to determine if a statement can be classified as a prediction. Predictions of a personal, inconsequential or unverifiable nature are excluded from verification, scoring and classification. Examples include: My mom is coming to meet me for lunch tomorrow. There will be a full moon next Tuesday. People will think this in response to that.
Our advanced AI systems are used to distinguish between content and segments of content that contain predictions from those that don't. We analyze content for context, responses to previous statements and metadata to determine if a statement can be classified as a prediction. Predictions of a personal, inconsequential or unverifiable nature are excluded from verification, scoring and classification. Examples include: My mom is coming to meet me for lunch tomorrow. There will be a full moon next Tuesday. People will think this in response to that.
Binary predictions involve predicting a specific event outcome with a defined timeframe, evaluated as TRUE/FALSE, like forecasting a sports match winner. Continuous predictions forecast variables that can take any value within a range, such as temperatures or stock prices, with accuracy measured by how close the predicted value is to the actual result. Non-predictions are vague statements lacking specific outcomes or timeframes, making them impossible to score accurately
A prediction can have one of five statuses;
- True: The prediction was determined to be true
- False: The prediction was determined to be false
- Partially True: The prediction was determined to be partially true
- Pending: The real world event that was forecast has not yet occurred
- Undetermined: The prediction is too vague or impossible to verify accurately
The status of a prediction is determined by using our proprietary AI-powered verification system to create research streams that break a prediction down into research topics (research data are sourced from: news outlets, financial markets, asset exchanges, sport authorities, betting markets, etc). We then pass the research output through our guidelines and standards to make a judgment based o5n the evidence as to the status of a prediction. If there is no consensus, or data is unavailable, the prediction is classified as Undetermined.
We process historical and current content (youtube videos, tweets, articles, podcasts, etc) to look for predictions made by speakers, authors and publications. We are a multi-modal platform that can process any medium to identify and extract predictions.
© 2023 Lucky or genius. All rights reserved.